Model Sheet
Every game, the model's number vs the market
The model's number on every game, every day — the market's price beside it, and what cleared the bar.
Yesterday's sheet is below, free and already graded — every look the model made, wins and losses alike.
Unlock with PremiumYesterday's sheet — graded
Posted · frozen for the day
| Matchup | ML | Spread | Model | Best look |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLEPHI | +130 -155 | +3.5 -110 -3.5 -110 | CLE 55% | PASS |
| PASS — the gap was too large to trust; a market this far from the model usually heard news the model can't. | ||||
| DENOKC | +264 -336 | +8.5 -110 -8.5 -110 | OKC 71% | PASS |
Model % is the model's number on the moneyline · Spread shows each side's line and its price · Look names the side that cleared the bar, with its edge underneath in probability points — the model minus the market's de-vigged % · PASS = edge below the bar · one look per game — the stronger of moneyline and spread.
The model's looks: 81–82 (3 push) · last 30 days
Model output, not picks: a seeded simulation of every game, compared to the de-vigged market; looks are what cleared the stated bar, and every look is graded here.