Model Sheet
Every game, the model's number vs the market
The model's number on every game, every day — the market's price beside it, and what cleared the bar.
Yesterday's sheet is below, free and already graded — every look the model made, wins and losses alike.
Unlock with PremiumYesterday's sheet — graded
Posted · frozen for the day
| Matchup | ML | Spread | Model | Best look |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NECHI | +135 -160 | +3 -110 -3 -110 | CHI 57% | PASS |
| CLEPHI | +130 -155 | +3.5 -110 -3.5 -110 | CLE 55% | PASS |
| PASS — the gap was too large to trust; a market this far from the model usually heard news the model can't. | ||||
| DENOKC | +264 -336 | +8.5 -110 -8.5 -110 | OKC 71% | PASS |
| SJOTT | +110 -132 | +1.5 -220 -1.5 +180 | OTT 66% | OTTlost+12.0 |
| PASS — the moneyline was the stronger look on this game. | ||||
| NYRTOR | -110 -110 | -1.5 +219 +1.5 -265 | NYR 54% | PASS |
| ANANJ | +180 -212 | +1.5 -143 -1.5 +120 | NJ 50% | PASS |
| PASS — the gap was too large to trust; a market this far from the model usually heard news the model can't. | ||||
| FLAPIT | -105 -115 | +1.5 -245 -1.5 +202 | PIT 63% | PITwon+11.5 |
| PASS — the moneyline was the stronger look on this game. | ||||
| NSHBOS | +127 -150 | +1.5 -200 -1.5 +164 | BOS 61% | PASS |
| LANYI | -115 -105 | -1.5 +215 +1.5 -278 | NYI 55% | NYI +1.5won+6.9 |
| PASS — the spread was the stronger look on this game. | ||||
| WPGDAL | +170 -200 | +1.5 -159 -1.5 +130 | DAL 69% | DAL -1.5lost+5.6 |
| MINCGY | -205 +170 | -1.5 +126 +1.5 -155 | MIN 62% | PASS |
| CAREDM | -120 +100 | -1.5 +196 +1.5 -250 | CAR 56% | PASS |
| DETVAN | -165 +140 | -1.5 +148 +1.5 -175 | DET 62% | PASS |
| UTASEA | -170 +145 | -1.5 +140 +1.5 -169 | UTA 59% | PASS |
Model % is the model's number on the moneyline · Spread shows each side's line and its price · Look names the side that cleared the bar, with its edge underneath in probability points — the model minus the market's de-vigged % · PASS = edge below the bar · one look per game — the stronger of moneyline and spread.
The model's looks: 81–82 (3 push) · last 30 days
Model output, not picks: a seeded simulation of every game, compared to the de-vigged market; looks are what cleared the stated bar, and every look is graded here.